Marquette

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Marquette, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Chase Ross	82.3%	+1.7range +0.6 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	+5.7range +5.1 to +6.5Sufficient evidence	$620KspeculativeLoading	$275K to $1.35MLoading
Nigel James Jr.	74.9%	+1.3range -0.3 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	+5.1range +4.3 to +5.7Sufficient evidence	$475KspeculativeLoading	$140K to $1.05MLoading
Royce Parham	70.0%	+0.9range -0.3 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +4.0 to +5.2Sufficient evidence	$420KspeculativeLoading	$130K to $860KLoading
Ben Gold	66.4%	+1.5range -0.2 to +2.7Sufficient evidence	+4.6range +3.9 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$425KspeculativeLoading	$150K to $885KLoading
Adrien Stevens	65.4%	+1.7range -0.1 to +3.2Sufficient evidence	+4.7range +3.9 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	$475KspeculativeLoading	$175K to $1.00MLoading
Damarius Owens	36.1%	-0.2range -1.6 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.8 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$130KspeculativeLoading	$23K to $320KLoading
Caedin Hamilton	31.5%	+0.3range -0.7 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.8 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	$150KspeculativeLoading	$39K to $315KLoading
Tre Norman	18.8%	-1.0range -2.1 to -0.3Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$56KspeculativeLoading	$16K to $145KLoading
Zaide Lowery	17.4%	+0.3range -0.5 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +1.0 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$91KspeculativeLoading	$32K to $185KLoading
Michael Phillips II	16.8%	+1.1range -0.1 to +2.3Sufficient evidence	+1.2range +1.0 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$115KspeculativeLoading	$45K to $240KLoading
Sean Jones	11.1%	-0.3range -1.3 to +0.7Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence	$55KspeculativeLoading	$20K to $115KLoading
Josh Clark	9.2%	+1.4range +0.6 to +2.1Limited evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.7Limited evidence	$81KspeculativeLoading	$39K to $155KLoading
Casey O'Malley	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$21Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$10K to $42KLoading
Jonah Lucas	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$21Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$10K to $42KLoading
Braeden Brenn	0.1%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$21Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$10K to $42KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.40M; 80% Range $1.85M to $5.90M
Tier: Big East and Gonzaga; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.15M to $4.00M; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 15; 3 floor only

The widest scenario range, $2.20M to $6.90M, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Chase Ross	82.3%	$620K	$275K to $1.35M	17.9%	$580K to $735K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Nigel James Jr.	74.9%	$475K	$140K to $1.05M	14.6%	$445K to $565K	$21K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Royce Parham	70.0%	$420K	$130K to $860K	12.9%	$390K to $495K	$21K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Ben Gold	66.4%	$425K	$150K to $885K	13.2%	$395K to $505K	$21K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Adrien Stevens	65.4%	$475K	$175K to $1.00M	14.0%	$445K to $560K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Damarius Owens	36.1%	$130K	$23K to $320K	4.6%	$125K to $155K	$21K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Caedin Hamilton	31.5%	$150K	$39K to $315K	5.1%	$140K to $175K	$21K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tre Norman	18.8%	$56K	$16K to $145K	2.0%	$53K to $67K	$21K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Zaide Lowery	17.4%	$91K	$32K to $185K	3.1%	$87K to $110K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Michael Phillips II	16.8%	$115K	$45K to $240K	3.6%	$105K to $135K	$21K	Sufficient evidence
Sean Jones	11.1%	$55K	$20K to $115K	1.9%	$51K to $65K	$21K	Limited evidence
Josh Clark	9.2%	$81K	$39K to $155K	2.4%	$76K to $96K	$21K	Limited evidence
Braeden Brenn	0.1%	$21K	$10K to $42K	0.7%	$20K to $25K	$21K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Casey O'Malley	0.1%	$21K	$10K to $42K	0.7%	$20K to $25K	$21K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Jonah Lucas	0.1%	$21K	$10K to $42K	0.7%	$20K to $25K	$21K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.40M	$1.85M to $5.90M	100%	$3.15M to $4.00M	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Marquette University (NCAA Division I without football)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$25,734,325
Men's basketball expenses	$20,053,484
Athletics department expenses	$44,620,329
Athletics department revenue	$44,620,329

Coverage and exclusions

30 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$25,734,325	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$20,053,484	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	1
3 or more days	30

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.4
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology