LSU

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for LSU, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Marquel Sutton	78.0%	+0.8range -0.3 to +1.9Sufficient evidence	+4.9range +4.3 to +5.4Sufficient evidence	$420KspeculativeLoading	$115K to $685KLoading
Max Mackinnon	77.7%	+1.7range +0.5 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	+5.3range +4.6 to +6.0Sufficient evidence	$560KspeculativeLoading	$295K to $875KLoading
Pablo Tamba	71.1%	+3.2range +1.9 to +4.5Sufficient evidence	+5.5range +4.8 to +6.0Sufficient evidence	$755KspeculativeLoading	$450K to $1.45MLoading
Jalen Reece	59.3%	-0.8range -2.0 to +0.2Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.7 to +3.6Sufficient evidence	$180KspeculativeLoading	$24K to $385KLoading
Michael Nwoko	54.0%	+1.5range +0.6 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.3 to +4.1Sufficient evidence	$385KspeculativeLoading	$210K to $595KLoading
Robert Miller III	43.9%	+0.3range -0.7 to +1.4Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.3 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$215KspeculativeLoading	$44K to $370KLoading
Rashad King	43.7%	-1.3range -2.6 to -0.0Sufficient evidence	+2.2range +1.8 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	$115KspeculativeLoading	$21K to $280KLoading
Dedan Thomas Jr.	33.6%	+4.1range +3.0 to +5.3Sufficient evidence	+2.8range +2.5 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	$470KspeculativeLoading	$275K to $1.00MLoading
PJ Carter	19.7%	-0.4range -1.2 to +0.6Sufficient evidence	+1.1range +1.0 to +1.3Sufficient evidence	$91KspeculativeLoading	$26K to $165KLoading
Mazi Mosley	8.9%	+0.1range -0.9 to +1.0Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	$59KspeculativeLoading	$26K to $100KLoading
Jalen Reed	8.1%	+2.3range +1.5 to +3.1Limited evidence	+0.6range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence	$93KspeculativeLoading	$61K to $145KLoading
Ron Zipper	1.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$26Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading
Jaden Bobbett	0.3%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$26Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$15K to $43KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $3.55M; 80% Range $2.60M to $4.95M
Tier: Power 4; medium evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $3.55M in all four; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 13; 2 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Marquel Sutton	78.0%	$420K	$115K to $685K	12.7%	$420K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Max Mackinnon	77.7%	$560K	$295K to $875K	15.8%	$560K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Pablo Tamba	71.1%	$755K	$450K to $1.45M	20.3%	$755K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Jalen Reece	59.3%	$180K	$24K to $385K	5.3%	$180K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Michael Nwoko	54.0%	$385K	$210K to $595K	10.9%	$385K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
Robert Miller III	43.9%	$215K	$44K to $370K	6.6%	$215K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Rashad King	43.7%	$115K	$21K to $280K	3.6%	$115K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dedan Thomas Jr.	33.6%	$470K	$275K to $1.00M	12.7%	$470K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidence
PJ Carter	19.7%	$91K	$26K to $165K	2.8%	$91K in all four	$26K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mazi Mosley	8.9%	$59K	$26K to $100K	1.8%	$59K in all four	$26K	Limited evidence
Jalen Reed	8.1%	$93K	$61K to $145K	2.6%	$93K in all four	$26K	Limited evidence
Ron Zipper	1.8%	$26K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$26K in all four	$26K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Jaden Bobbett	0.3%	$26K	$15K to $43K	0.8%	$26K in all four	$26K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate
Team Pool	—	$3.55M	$2.60M to $4.95M	100%	$3.55M in all four	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$13,624,943
Men's basketball expenses	$11,104,405
Athletics department expenses	$219,649,408
Athletics department revenue	$223,457,268

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (91%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

3 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$13,624,943	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$11,104,405	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched through an NCES IPEDS institution alias, with state and home-venue city agreeing.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
3 or more days	30

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology