Citadel

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Citadel, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Sola Adebisi	76.4%	-1.1range -2.3 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+2.7range +2.3 to +3.0Sufficient evidence	$21KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $87KLoading
Braxton Williams	75.3%	-1.8range -3.2 to -0.5Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$11KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $58KLoading
Carter Kingsbury	69.0%	-2.5range -3.5 to -1.2Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.8 to +2.5Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $44KLoading
Eze Wali	63.2%	-2.5range -4.0 to -1.0Sufficient evidence	+2.0range +1.6 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$7KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $44KLoading
Christian Moore	58.4%	-1.4range -2.9 to -0.1Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.7 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $61KLoading
Logan Applegate	38.5%	+1.0range -0.2 to +2.6Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.6 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	$53KspeculativeLoading	$11K to $265KLoading
Keynan Davis	27.4%	-1.7range -2.8 to -0.3Sufficient evidence	+1.0range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$6KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $29KLoading
Dante Kearse	25.2%	-3.5range -4.8 to -2.3Sufficient evidence	+0.7range +0.6 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $13KLoading
Marcos Gonzales	24.5%	-2.7range -3.8 to -1.4Sufficient evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $17KLoading
Simeon German	23.6%	-2.2range -3.2 to -0.9Sufficient evidence	+0.8range +0.7 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $20KLoading
Gabe Hernandez	9.4%	-1.4range -2.1 to -0.9Limited evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $10KLoading
Cassius Bonjasky	5.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading
Chase Williams	1.8%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading
Logan Menefee	0.9%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading
Jameson Heck	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading
Rowan Irelan	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading
Aidan Alexander	0.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading
Jack Walter	0.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$1Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$0 to $3KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $205K; 80% Range $76K to $550K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $195K to $215K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 18; 7 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Sola Adebisi	76.4%	$21K	$1K to $87K	14.4%	$20K to $21K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Braxton Williams	75.3%	$11K	$1K to $58K	10.3%	$11K to $12K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Carter Kingsbury	69.0%	$6K	$1K to $44K	6.2%	$6K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Eze Wali	63.2%	$7K	$1K to $44K	5.7%	$6K to $7K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Christian Moore	58.4%	$13K	$1K to $61K	10.3%	$13K to $14K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Logan Applegate	38.5%	$53K	$11K to $265K	20.2%	$50K to $55K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Keynan Davis	27.4%	$6K	$1K to $29K	4.6%	$6K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Dante Kearse	25.2%	$3K	$1K to $13K	0.8%	$3K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Marcos Gonzales	24.5%	$3K	$1K to $17K	2.0%	$3K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Simeon German	23.6%	$4K	$1K to $20K	3.1%	$4K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Gabe Hernandez	9.4%	$3K	$1K to $10K	2.0%	$3K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Cassius Bonjasky	5.9%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.5%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Chase Williams	1.8%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.5%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Logan Menefee	0.9%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.5%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jameson Heck	0.2%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.5%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Rowan Irelan	0.2%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.5%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Aidan Alexander	0.0%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.5%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jack Walter	0.0%	$1K	$0 to $3K	0.5%	$1K in all four	$1K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$205K	$76K to $550K	100%	$195K to $215K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Citadel Military College of South Carolina (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,195,887
Men's basketball expenses	$2,020,125
Athletics department expenses	$20,021,006
Athletics department revenue	$23,010,489

Coverage and exclusions

29 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$2,195,887	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,020,125	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	1
2 days	6
3 or more days	22

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	1
Longest run of consecutive away games	4

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology