Bowling Green

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Bowling Green, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Javontae Campbell	88.8%	+2.5range +1.1 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	+7.0range +6.0 to +7.8Sufficient evidence	$63KspeculativeLoading	$22K to $190KLoading
Sam Towns	82.8%	+1.7range +0.2 to +3.1Sufficient evidence	+6.1range +5.2 to +6.9Sufficient evidence	$44KspeculativeLoading	$13K to $130KLoading
Justin Thomas	61.4%	+0.9range -0.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence	+4.2range +3.6 to +4.7Sufficient evidence	$26KspeculativeLoading	$6K to $78KLoading
Troy Glover II	59.9%	+1.7range +0.8 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+4.5range +4.0 to +5.1Sufficient evidence	$37KspeculativeLoading	$12K to $110KLoading
Josiah Shackelford	58.9%	-0.0range -1.5 to +1.7Sufficient evidence	+3.7range +3.0 to +4.4Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $63KLoading
Javon Ruffin	58.4%	+1.5range +0.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	+4.3range +3.6 to +4.8Sufficient evidence	$31KspeculativeLoading	$8K to $97KLoading
Mayar Wol	49.9%	+0.3range -1.4 to +1.8Sufficient evidence	+3.2range +2.6 to +3.8Sufficient evidence	$18KspeculativeLoading	$3K to $60KLoading
Aiden Goins	15.5%	-0.8range -1.7 to +0.1Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $14KLoading
Makhi Leach	13.8%	-0.7range -2.1 to +0.6Limited evidence	+0.8range +0.6 to +0.9Limited evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $14KLoading
Camden Karel	6.4%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Jason Kimbrough Jr.	3.0%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Preston Squire	0.7%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Alijah Adem	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Mohamed Maxamud	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading
Christian Dedivanaj	0.2%	Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence	Not applicable	$2Kspeculative, floor onlyLoading	$1K to $5KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $280K; 80% Range $105K to $755K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $250K to $295K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 15; 6 floor only

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Javontae Campbell	88.8%	$63K	$22K to $190K	21.7%	$56K to $67K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Sam Towns	82.8%	$44K	$13K to $130K	16.5%	$39K to $47K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Justin Thomas	61.4%	$26K	$6K to $78K	10.7%	$23K to $27K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Troy Glover II	59.9%	$37K	$12K to $110K	13.0%	$33K to $39K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Josiah Shackelford	58.9%	$18K	$2K to $63K	8.4%	$16K to $19K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Javon Ruffin	58.4%	$31K	$8K to $97K	11.7%	$28K to $33K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mayar Wol	49.9%	$18K	$3K to $60K	7.8%	$16K to $19K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Aiden Goins	15.5%	$4K	$1K to $14K	1.9%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Makhi Leach	13.8%	$5K	$1K to $14K	1.9%	$4K to $5K	$2K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Camden Karel	6.4%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Jason Kimbrough Jr.	3.0%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Preston Squire	0.7%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Alijah Adem	0.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Christian Dedivanaj	0.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Mohamed Maxamud	0.2%	$2K	$1K to $5K	0.7%	$2K in all four	$2K	Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimateRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$280K	$105K to $755K	100%	$250K to $295K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Bowling Green State University-Main Campus (NCAA Division I-FBS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$2,731,737
Men's basketball expenses	$2,626,397
Athletics department expenses	$35,288,178
Athletics department revenue	$35,288,178

Coverage and exclusions

28 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

1 of 29 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses

Reported revenue	$2,731,737	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$2,626,397	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
2 days	1
3 or more days	27

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.3
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	0
Longest run of consecutive away games	2

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology