Alcorn St

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Team results

Roster valuesβ

Roster values for Alcorn St, 2026: retrospective net points per 100 possessions and, for 2025–26 only, a speculative compensation best guess. Players are listed by possession share, not by value or dollars.
Player	Possession share	Net and range	Wins above replacement and range	Speculative compensation (best guess)	Compensation 80% range
Shane Lancaster	72.9%	-1.7range -2.8 to -0.6Sufficient evidence	+2.5range +2.1 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$13KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $56KLoading
Nick Woodard	71.2%	-4.0range -5.2 to -2.9Sufficient evidence	+1.8range +1.3 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $29KLoading
Tycen McDaniels	68.8%	-1.4range -2.5 to -0.3Sufficient evidence	+2.4range +2.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence	$16KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $64KLoading
Jameel Morris	68.1%	-0.5range -1.4 to +0.5Sufficient evidence	+2.6range +2.3 to +2.9Sufficient evidence	$36KspeculativeLoading	$7K to $145KLoading
Davian Williams	65.4%	-3.7range -5.2 to -2.3Sufficient evidence	+1.7range +1.2 to +2.2Sufficient evidence	$5KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $29KLoading
Omari Hamilton	53.2%	-0.7range -2.1 to +0.9Sufficient evidence	+2.1range +1.7 to +2.4Sufficient evidence	$21KspeculativeLoading	$2K to $99KLoading
Travis Roberts	39.4%	-5.0range -6.8 to -3.5Sufficient evidence	+0.8range +0.5 to +1.2Sufficient evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $14KLoading
Bryson Calamese	27.6%	-2.6range -4.1 to -1.3Sufficient evidence	+0.9range +0.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence	$4KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $19KLoading
Mike Jones	14.1%	-2.6range -3.9 to -1.5Limited evidence	+0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $10KLoading
Jeremy Ellis	10.0%	-1.8range -2.6 to -1.0Limited evidence	+0.4range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence	$3KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $10KLoading
William Henderson	9.2%	-2.6range -3.5 to -1.7Limited evidence	+0.3range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence	$2KspeculativeLoading	$1K to $8KLoading

Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.

Team pool and per-player compensation · 2025–26β

Team Pool: $155K; 80% Range $59K to $410K
Tier: Low and other; low evidence
Team Pool, Scenarios Z1 to Z4: $145K to $180K; Scenario medians
Players with Figures: 11

The widest scenario range, $67K to $475K, is wider than the 80% Range above (soft check S5). Methodology

Players in possession-share order
Player	Poss. Share	Speculative Best Guess	80% Range	Median % of Team Pool	Scenarios Z1 to Z4	Floor Part	Evidence and Flags
Shane Lancaster	72.9%	$13K	$1K to $56K	13.8%	$12K to $15K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Nick Woodard	71.2%	$5K	$1K to $29K	4.8%	$5K to $6K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Tycen McDaniels	68.8%	$16K	$1K to $64K	13.9%	$14K to $18K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jameel Morris	68.1%	$36K	$7K to $145K	19.6%	$33K to $41K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Davian Williams	65.4%	$5K	$1K to $29K	4.6%	$5K to $6K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Omari Hamilton	53.2%	$21K	$2K to $99K	13.5%	$20K to $25K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Travis Roberts	39.4%	$3K	$1K to $14K	1.7%	$3K in all four	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Bryson Calamese	27.6%	$4K	$1K to $19K	3.8%	$4K to $5K	$1K	Sufficient evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Mike Jones	14.1%	$3K	$1K to $10K	2.4%	$3K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Jeremy Ellis	10.0%	$3K	$1K to $10K	2.5%	$3K in all four	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
William Henderson	9.2%	$2K	$1K to $8K	1.9%	$2K to $3K	$1K	Limited evidenceRange driven by assumption, not data
Team Pool	—	$155K	$59K to $410K	100%	$145K to $180K	—

What-if calculator on the team page

School Finances · School-Reported (EADA)

Self-reported to the U.S. Department of Education. Expenses cover coaching, travel, aid and operations, not player pay.

School-reported finances, 2024-25, Alcorn State University (NCAA Division I-FCS)
Measure	School-Reported Amount	Note
Men's basketball revenue	$1,386,731	Equals expenses (budget identity)
Men's basketball expenses	$1,386,731
Athletics department expenses	$10,509,725
Athletics department revenue	$10,509,725

Coverage and exclusions

30 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.

2 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team

Program revenueβ

EADA year 2024-25 (alternate pairing to repo season 2026; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses

Reported revenue	$1,386,731	Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output.
Reported expenses	$1,386,731	Reported by the school.

EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.

No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.

Schedule loadβ

Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.

Rest days before each game

Rest days	Games
First game (no rest value)	1
1 day	2
2 days	11
3 or more days	18

Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.

Load summary

Mean games in prior 7 days	1.7
Games with fewer rest days than the opponent	5
Longest run of consecutive away games	7

Association between rest and margin, all teams

Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41

This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.

Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology