UC San Diego
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Gray | 83.1% | +5.5range +4.2 to +7.1Sufficient evidence | +5.5range +4.7 to +6.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tyler McGhie | 79.2% | +3.6range +2.2 to +4.8Sufficient evidence | +4.2range +3.6 to +4.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones | 77.0% | +5.7range +4.3 to +7.3Sufficient evidence | +5.0range +4.3 to +6.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Chris Howell | 73.8% | +3.9range +2.6 to +5.2Sufficient evidence | +4.0range +3.4 to +4.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Nordin Kapic | 65.6% | +2.5range +1.1 to +3.9Sufficient evidence | +3.0range +2.5 to +3.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Justin Rochelin | 48.1% | +1.1range -0.3 to +2.6Sufficient evidence | +1.8range +1.4 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Aidan Burke | 31.0% | +1.2range +0.2 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +1.0 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Maximo Milovich | 27.7% | +2.0range +0.6 to +3.3Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cade Pendleton | 4.9% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ryder Elisaldez | 4.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jasen Brooks | 3.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Milos Vicentic | 1.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Yaqub Mir | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
28 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (85%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 5 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $3,633,627 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $3,633,627 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 3 |
| 2 days | 10 |
| 3 or more days | 19 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 3 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 4 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology