Bellarmine
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Smith | 76.6% | -2.6range -4.2 to -0.7Sufficient evidence | +1.6range +1.1 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tyler Doyle | 57.2% | -0.0range -1.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | +1.9range +1.5 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jack Karasinski | 54.2% | -0.1range -1.6 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | +1.8range +1.5 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Curt Hopf | 49.5% | -3.5range -4.6 to -2.3Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.6 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kenyon Goodin | 49.1% | -2.5range -3.4 to -1.2Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Landin Hacker | 45.4% | -1.2range -2.5 to +0.0Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.0 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Grant Whitaker | 33.6% | -1.6range -2.5 to -0.7Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Myles Watkins | 33.2% | -1.1range -2.5 to -0.1Sufficient evidence | +1.0range +0.7 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ben Johnson | 32.1% | -1.7range -2.5 to -1.0Sufficient evidence | +0.8range +0.7 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dezmond McKinney | 29.0% | -0.4range -1.2 to +0.5Sufficient evidence | +1.0range +0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| AJ Lux | 25.3% | +1.8range +0.6 to +2.9Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dylan Branson | 10.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Luke Anderson | 3.9% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
20 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (69%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 9 of 29 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,523,448 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,523,448 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 2 days | 10 |
| 3 or more days | 18 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 4 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology