Winthrop
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasen Harrison | 76.6% | +1.9range +0.8 to +3.1Sufficient evidence | +4.8range +4.1 to +5.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kelton Talford | 71.4% | +2.3range +1.0 to +3.3Sufficient evidence | +4.6range +3.9 to +5.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Nick Johnson | 69.9% | -0.9range -2.3 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | +3.0range +2.2 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| K.J. Doucet | 63.2% | +1.3range +0.2 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | +3.6range +3.0 to +4.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Bryce Baker | 49.6% | +1.1range -0.6 to +2.5Sufficient evidence | +2.8range +2.2 to +3.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Paul Jones III | 47.8% | -0.1range -1.5 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | +2.3range +1.8 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tommy Kamarad | 31.2% | +1.3range +0.1 to +2.6Sufficient evidence | +1.8range +1.5 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Isaiah Wilson | 26.8% | -1.4range -2.8 to -0.1Sufficient evidence | +1.0range +0.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ryan Jolly | 21.3% | -1.1range -2.2 to -0.1Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Logan Duncomb | 15.3% | -0.2range -1.2 to +0.7Sufficient evidence | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tai Hamilton | 13.6% | -1.8range -2.8 to -0.6Sufficient evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Yoro Diallo | 11.1% | -2.2range -3.1 to -1.3Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Noah Van Bibber | 1.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cam Christy | 0.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Henry Harrison | 0.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
30 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 1 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $1,944,015 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $1,944,015 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 4 |
| 2 days | 3 |
| 3 or more days | 23 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 2 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology