Washington St
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Price | 78.9% | +1.6range +0.3 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | +4.4range +3.9 to +5.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| LeJuan Watts | 78.9% | +0.7range -0.3 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | +4.0range +3.4 to +4.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Nate Calmese | 75.7% | -1.4range -2.7 to -0.0Sufficient evidence | +2.8range +2.1 to +3.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dane Erikstrup | 63.3% | +1.8range +0.5 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | +3.7range +3.1 to +4.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tomas Thrastarson | 47.6% | -0.4range -2.1 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | +2.1range +1.6 to +2.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Isaiah Watts | 45.9% | -0.3range -1.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | +2.0range +1.6 to +2.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| ND Okafor | 31.9% | -1.1range -2.5 to +0.3Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.0 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kase Wynott | 25.2% | -2.8range -4.2 to -1.3Sufficient evidence | +0.7range +0.5 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Parker Gerrits | 20.9% | +0.4range -0.5 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | +1.0range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Rihards Vavers | 15.5% | +0.1range -1.0 to +1.3Limited evidence | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.9Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cedric Coward | 14.0% | +2.6range +1.5 to +3.8Limited evidence | +0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Marcus Wilson | 1.9% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tayon Sessoms | 0.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
25 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (76%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 8 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses
| Reported revenue | $6,640,383 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $4,336,028 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 7 |
| 3 or more days | 23 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 4 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 3 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology