Wagner
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Ezquerra | 86.7% | -0.3range -1.2 to +0.5Sufficient evidence | +3.1range +2.7 to +3.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Zaire Williams | 60.0% | -1.3range -2.0 to -0.2Sufficient evidence | +1.9range +1.6 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tyje Kelton | 59.1% | -1.8range -2.8 to -0.8Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.4 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Zae Blake | 50.9% | -0.3range -1.0 to +0.6Sufficient evidence | +1.9range +1.7 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Keyontae Lewis | 50.0% | -0.3range -1.4 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | +1.8range +1.5 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Zavier Fitch | 48.5% | -0.9range -1.9 to +0.2Sufficient evidence | +1.6range +1.3 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ja'Kair Sanchez | 46.4% | -2.1range -3.2 to -1.0Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.0 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| RJ Greene | 44.6% | -1.9range -3.0 to -0.9Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.0 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Di'Andre Howell-South | 26.4% | -1.9range -2.7 to -1.0Sufficient evidence | +0.8range +0.6 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Churchilll Bounds | 19.2% | -0.3range -1.1 to +0.3Limited evidence | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Rahmir Moore | 4.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Rob Taylor II | 3.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
19 of 26 games passed lineup acceptance (73%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 7 of 26 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,020,071 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,020,071 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 2 days | 7 |
| 3 or more days | 18 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.3 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 5 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology