W Illinois
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Smith | 84.4% | +0.9range -0.3 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | +3.6range +3.1 to +4.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ryan Myers | 83.5% | -2.7range -4.1 to -1.5Sufficient evidence | +2.0range +1.5 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Julius Rollins | 78.3% | -2.7range -3.7 to -1.8Sufficient evidence | +1.9range +1.4 to +2.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Marko Maletic | 69.6% | -2.6range -3.6 to -1.4Sufficient evidence | +1.8range +1.4 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Trey Deveaux | 57.2% | +0.2range -0.8 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | +2.3range +1.9 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kayden Carter | 31.4% | -0.0range -1.1 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.1 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Rodrick Payne | 30.4% | -0.9range -1.9 to +0.1Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tay Knox | 26.3% | +0.6range -0.3 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Massal Diouf | 23.8% | -0.9range -1.7 to -0.2Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.7 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Caleb Thompson | 10.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kiyron Powell | 4.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
20 of 28 games passed lineup acceptance (71%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 8 of 28 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $1,375,742 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $1,375,742 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 1 |
| 2 days | 10 |
| 3 or more days | 16 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 2 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 3 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology