UT Arlington
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brody Robinson | 78.5% | -0.1range -1.0 to +0.7Sufficient evidence | +3.3range +2.8 to +3.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Lance Ware | 69.3% | -0.6range -1.6 to +0.5Sufficient evidence | +2.8range +2.3 to +3.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Darius Burford | 66.9% | -0.7range -1.8 to +0.3Sufficient evidence | +2.6range +2.2 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Raysean Seamster | 64.2% | -0.7range -1.8 to +0.4Sufficient evidence | +2.5range +2.1 to +3.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jaden Wells | 55.3% | -1.0range -2.0 to +0.0Sufficient evidence | +2.1range +1.7 to +2.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Brandyn Talbot | 49.0% | +0.0range -1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | +2.2range +1.8 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kade Douglas | 33.4% | +0.0range -1.3 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | +1.5range +1.2 to +1.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Diante Smith | 32.9% | -0.7range -1.9 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.0 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth | 26.0% | -0.4range -1.3 to +0.5Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Troy Hupstead | 14.9% | -0.7range -1.5 to -0.0Limited evidence | +0.6range +0.5 to +0.7Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cameron Jackson | 7.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jarren Cook | 1.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Zachariah Mianab | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
24 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (83%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 5 of 29 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,484,568 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,484,568 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 7 |
| 3 or more days | 19 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 5 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology