UC Riverside
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrington Hargress | 79.2% | -0.1range -1.2 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | +3.4range +2.9 to +4.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Nate Pickens | 68.4% | +0.5range -0.6 to +1.8Sufficient evidence | +3.2range +2.8 to +3.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kaleb Smith | 68.3% | -1.1range -2.1 to -0.0Sufficient evidence | +2.6range +2.1 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Isaiah Moses | 67.0% | +0.7range -0.9 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | +3.2range +2.6 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Niyi Olabode | 51.7% | +0.4range -0.6 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | +2.4range +2.1 to +2.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Joel Armotrading | 51.1% | +2.3range +1.2 to +3.3Sufficient evidence | +3.0range +2.7 to +3.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Rikus Schulte | 37.5% | +1.8range +0.9 to +2.5Sufficient evidence | +2.1range +1.8 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jack Whitbourn | 30.6% | +0.4range -0.5 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | +1.4range +1.3 to +1.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Parker Strauss | 25.3% | +0.5range -0.8 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +1.0 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Gavin Davis | 10.4% | -2.5range -3.6 to -1.3Limited evidence | +0.3range +0.2 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Luke Turner | 10.2% | -1.8range -2.5 to -1.1Limited evidence | +0.3range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jayden Mojica | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
26 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (84%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 5 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,917,272 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,917,272 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 2 days | 10 |
| 3 or more days | 20 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 0 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 5 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology