UC Davis
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Johnson | 84.9% | -0.2range -1.2 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | +3.3range +2.8 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Leo DeBruhl | 73.4% | +1.5range +0.5 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | +3.6range +3.2 to +4.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Connor Sevilla | 71.8% | -0.9range -2.0 to +0.3Sufficient evidence | +2.6range +2.0 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Pablo Tamba | 70.8% | -0.3range -1.8 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | +2.8range +2.2 to +3.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Niko Rocak | 62.4% | +4.0range +2.6 to +5.2Sufficient evidence | +3.9range +3.5 to +4.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Carl Daughtery Jr. | 44.0% | -3.1range -4.2 to -2.0Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.8 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Nils Cooper | 40.4% | +0.1range -1.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.4 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Sione Lose | 27.5% | -2.2range -3.5 to -1.2Sufficient evidence | +0.8range +0.6 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Isaiah Chappell | 17.5% | -1.5range -2.9 to +0.0Sufficient evidence | +0.6range +0.5 to +0.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jamaal Unuakhalu | 3.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jac Mani | 2.9% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Derek Sangster | 0.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Marsalis Roberson | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
25 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (83%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 5 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,779,115 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,779,115 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 2 days | 10 |
| 3 or more days | 19 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 4 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology