Texas St
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua O'Garro | 75.7% | +1.4range +0.6 to +2.5Sufficient evidence | +4.3range +3.7 to +5.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kaden Gumbs | 70.1% | -0.3range -1.2 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | +3.2range +2.7 to +3.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tylan Pope | 66.4% | +1.5range +0.6 to +2.5Sufficient evidence | +3.9range +3.4 to +4.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tyrel Morgan | 52.3% | +2.1range +0.8 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | +3.3range +2.8 to +3.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Christian Turner | 49.6% | +0.0range -0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | +2.4range +2.1 to +2.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Drue Drinnon | 40.7% | +0.1range -0.9 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | +2.0range +1.6 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dylan Dawson | 40.3% | -2.0range -3.0 to -0.8Sufficient evidence | +1.4range +1.1 to +1.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Coleton Benson | 35.5% | -1.9range -3.0 to -0.5Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +0.9 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Austin Green | 27.7% | +0.3range -0.6 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | +1.4range +1.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mark Drone | 18.1% | +0.3range -0.2 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Nate Deer | 11.3% | -1.9range -2.7 to -1.2Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Bessanty Saragba | 10.5% | -3.2range -3.8 to -2.6Limited evidence | +0.3range +0.2 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jaylen Jones | 1.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
25 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (83%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 5 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $3,415,913 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $3,415,913 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 1 |
| 2 days | 6 |
| 3 or more days | 22 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 4 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology