St Mary's CA
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Barrett | 92.0% | +3.7range +2.5 to +4.9Sufficient evidence | +6.2range +5.4 to +7.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Augustas Marciulionis | 89.3% | +5.3range +4.3 to +6.4Sufficient evidence | +7.1range +6.2 to +8.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mitchell Saxen | 77.7% | +5.7range +4.6 to +6.9Sufficient evidence | +6.2range +5.6 to +7.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jordan Ross | 68.6% | +1.0range -0.0 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | +3.3range +2.8 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Paulius Murauskas | 67.1% | +1.0range -0.3 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | +3.2range +2.5 to +3.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mikey Lewis | 38.7% | +2.4range +1.1 to +3.6Sufficient evidence | +2.1range +1.8 to +2.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Harry Wessels | 30.5% | +0.4range -1.1 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.0 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ashton Hardaway | 20.8% | +1.2range -0.3 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | +1.0range +0.8 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Andrew McKeever | 6.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Joshua Dent | 4.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cade Bennett | 3.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kevin Gad | 1.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
29 of 34 games passed lineup acceptance (85%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 5 of 34 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $8,298,148 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $8,298,148 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 5 |
| 3 or more days | 26 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.3 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology