Southern Miss
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denijay Harris | 82.0% | -1.4range -2.4 to -0.5Sufficient evidence | +2.7range +2.3 to +3.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Christian Watson | 71.2% | -0.1range -1.0 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | +2.9range +2.5 to +3.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| DeAntoni Gordon | 69.2% | -2.2range -3.4 to -1.1Sufficient evidence | +2.0range +1.6 to +2.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Neftali Alvarez | 67.0% | -0.8range -1.5 to +0.1Sufficient evidence | +2.5range +2.1 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cobie Montgomery | 56.5% | -1.2range -2.4 to -0.1Sufficient evidence | +2.0range +1.5 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Alfred Worrell Jr. | 32.0% | -1.6range -2.7 to -0.5Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.8 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Andre Curbelo | 31.0% | -0.4range -1.5 to +0.6Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.1 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Christian Reid | 20.9% | +1.1range -0.1 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | +1.0range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| John Wade III | 17.0% | -0.2range -0.9 to +0.5Sufficient evidence | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jett Montgomery | 15.0% | -0.4range -1.0 to +0.3Limited evidence | +0.6range +0.5 to +0.7Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Brewer Carruth | 12.8% | -1.3range -2.2 to -0.4Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jeffery Armstrong | 11.7% | -1.6range -2.9 to -0.2Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jose Benitez | 7.8% | -0.8range -1.3 to -0.3Limited evidence | +0.3range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tegra Izay | 2.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Trey Alfonso | 2.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Lieb Yat | 1.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
27 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (87%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 4 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,393,354 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,393,354 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 6 |
| 3 or more days | 22 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 4 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 4 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology