SF Austin
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrishawn Christmas | 77.0% | +0.4range -0.7 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | +3.3range +2.8 to +3.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Matt Hayman | 72.6% | -0.8range -1.8 to +0.1Sufficient evidence | +2.7range +2.2 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Nana Antwi-Boasiako | 62.7% | +1.8range +1.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | +3.2range +2.9 to +3.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Keon Thompson | 58.9% | -1.6range -2.7 to -0.5Sufficient evidence | +1.9range +1.5 to +2.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dominic Pangonis | 50.9% | -1.7range -3.0 to -0.2Sufficient evidence | +1.6range +1.2 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Juhlawnei Stone | 45.2% | +0.1range -0.9 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | +1.9range +1.6 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Myles Jenkins | 37.7% | -1.9range -2.9 to -0.8Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +0.9 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Keith Lamar | 37.4% | -2.1range -3.2 to -1.0Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Clayton Southwick | 20.9% | -1.1range -2.3 to -0.1Sufficient evidence | +0.8range +0.6 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Thierno Sylla | 18.4% | -0.7range -1.7 to +0.3Limited evidence | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Keenan Emmanuel | 9.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| DaeVeon Scott | 5.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Chris Johnson | 1.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ethan Mayes | 1.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Luke Stansbury | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
21 of 28 games passed lineup acceptance (75%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 7 of 28 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,403,896 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,403,896 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 10 |
| 3 or more days | 15 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 0 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 5 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology