UC Santa Barbara
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Fontenet II | 77.9% | -0.1range -1.0 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | +3.6range +2.9 to +4.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Stephan Swenson | 76.7% | +2.0range +0.9 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | +4.5range +3.9 to +5.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cole Anderson | 76.6% | +0.7range -0.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | +3.9range +3.3 to +4.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kenny Pohto | 67.3% | +1.8range +0.9 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | +3.9range +3.4 to +4.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Deuce Turner | 47.5% | -2.6range -4.0 to -1.3Sufficient evidence | +1.4range +1.0 to +1.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Max Murrell | 47.2% | -1.2range -2.3 to -0.2Sufficient evidence | +1.8range +1.4 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Colin Smith | 36.5% | +0.6range -0.5 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | +1.8range +1.5 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ben Shtolzberg | 27.6% | +1.7range +0.3 to +3.3Sufficient evidence | +1.6range +1.3 to +1.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Koat Keat Tong | 11.3% | +0.5range -0.4 to +1.2Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ariel Bland | 10.6% | -0.6range -1.2 to +0.1Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Evans Kipruto | 9.9% | -0.6range -1.1 to -0.0Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Zion Sensley | 7.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Chris Mitchell | 1.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| David Pickles | 0.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Henry Hartwell | 0.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Max Sheldon | 0.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Elia Bongiorno | 0.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
22 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (69%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 10 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $4,583,984 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $4,583,984 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 9 |
| 3 or more days | 20 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 2 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 3 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology