Purdue
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Smith | 93.2% | +6.1range +4.9 to +7.2Sufficient evidence | +9.8range +8.8 to +10.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn | 77.7% | +3.3range +2.0 to +4.3Sufficient evidence | +6.5range +5.5 to +7.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Fletcher Loyer | 77.1% | +2.9range +1.7 to +3.7Sufficient evidence | +6.1range +5.3 to +7.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Camden Heide | 48.6% | +0.7range -0.5 to +1.8Sufficient evidence | +3.0range +2.4 to +3.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| C.J. Cox | 47.8% | +3.5range +2.2 to +4.9Sufficient evidence | +4.0range +3.5 to +4.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Caleb Furst | 46.7% | +2.6range +1.0 to +4.3Sufficient evidence | +3.6range +2.9 to +4.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Myles Colvin | 43.9% | -0.0range -1.5 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | +2.4range +1.9 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Gicarri Harris | 36.6% | +1.4range -0.1 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | +2.4range +2.0 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Raleigh Burgess | 13.9% | +1.5range +0.5 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Will Berg | 7.9% | +1.9range +1.0 to +2.8Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Brian Waddell | 2.9% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Daniel Jacobsen | 2.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Sam King | 0.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jack Lusk | 0.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jace Rayl | 0.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Josh Furst | 0.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
34 of 36 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 2 of 36 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses
| Reported revenue | $20,966,991 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $14,040,438 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 1 |
| 3 or more days | 32 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology