Northwestern LA
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Williams | 72.0% | +0.2range -0.9 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | +3.1range +2.6 to +3.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Addison Patterson | 70.4% | +0.9range -0.2 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | +3.2range +2.8 to +3.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Micah Thomas | 69.5% | -1.3range -2.4 to -0.3Sufficient evidence | +2.4range +1.9 to +2.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jerald Colonel | 50.1% | +1.3range +0.2 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | +2.5range +2.1 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Love Bettis | 49.7% | -1.2range -2.4 to +0.1Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.3 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Landyn Jumawan | 49.3% | +0.4range -0.8 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | +2.2range +1.8 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jon Sanders | 43.1% | -2.4range -3.3 to -1.3Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +0.9 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| JT Warren | 31.7% | -0.5range -1.6 to +0.6Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.0 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Chris Mubiru | 22.3% | -1.4range -2.5 to -0.5Sufficient evidence | +0.8range +0.6 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Lado Laku | 16.7% | +1.5range +1.0 to +2.2Limited evidence | +0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Justin Redmond | 15.9% | -1.2range -2.2 to -0.1Limited evidence | +0.6range +0.5 to +0.7Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| J.C. Riley Jr. | 8.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dontae Walker | 0.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mitch Williams | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
24 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (80%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 6 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses
| Reported revenue | $1,811,320 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $1,285,774 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 1 |
| 2 days | 11 |
| 3 or more days | 17 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 5 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology