Northern Arizona
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton McLaughlin | 93.7% | +0.7range -0.2 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | +5.1range +4.5 to +5.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Carson Towt | 86.6% | +2.1range +1.5 to +2.9Sufficient evidence | +5.5range +5.0 to +6.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jayden Jackson | 77.5% | +1.2range +0.3 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | +4.5range +4.0 to +5.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Monty Bowser | 46.4% | -1.1range -2.2 to -0.1Sufficient evidence | +2.0range +1.6 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Diego Campisano | 43.2% | +0.8range -0.3 to +1.9Sufficient evidence | +2.4range +2.0 to +2.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ryan Abelman | 41.4% | +0.5range -0.5 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | +2.2range +1.9 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dillan Baker | 31.5% | -2.2range -3.8 to -1.1Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.8 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Oakland Fort | 30.1% | -1.5range -2.5 to -0.5Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +0.9 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Leigh Rickwood-Pitt | 25.9% | -1.9range -2.6 to -1.0Sufficient evidence | +1.0range +0.8 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ali Ragab | 11.2% | -1.7range -2.6 to -0.6Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jack Wistrcill | 10.5% | -2.7range -3.8 to -1.8Limited evidence | +0.3range +0.2 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| C.J. Ford | 2.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
22 of 29 games passed lineup acceptance (76%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 7 of 29 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $1,602,632 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $1,602,632 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 10 |
| 3 or more days | 16 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 3 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 4 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology