North Carolina
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Davis | 86.0% | +3.4range +2.0 to +4.5Sufficient evidence | +6.5range +5.5 to +7.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Elliot Cadeau | 69.2% | +3.4range +1.9 to +4.5Sufficient evidence | +5.1range +4.4 to +5.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Drake Powell | 66.3% | +3.2range +1.7 to +4.8Sufficient evidence | +4.8range +4.1 to +5.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Seth Trimble | 66.0% | +1.9range +0.5 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | +4.2range +3.6 to +4.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ian Jackson | 57.6% | -0.2range -1.5 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | +2.8range +2.2 to +3.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ven-Allen Lubin | 49.3% | +2.8range +1.5 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | +3.4range +2.9 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jae'Lyn Withers | 42.1% | +2.1range +0.7 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | +2.7range +2.2 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jalen Washington | 36.9% | +1.1range -0.3 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | +2.1range +1.7 to +2.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cade Tyson | 14.4% | +2.1range +0.7 to +3.4Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.8 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tyzhaun Claude | 6.9% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| James Brown | 3.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Russell Hawkins | 0.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dante Mayo Jr. | 0.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| John Holbrook | 0.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
30 of 37 games passed lineup acceptance (81%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 7 of 37 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses
| Reported revenue | $39,742,088 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $16,738,604 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 4 |
| 2 days | 2 |
| 3 or more days | 30 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology