MTSU
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jestin Porter | 82.6% | +0.8range -0.2 to +1.9Sufficient evidence | +4.9range +4.0 to +5.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Camryn Weston | 67.4% | +0.7range -0.5 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | +3.9range +3.2 to +4.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Essam Mostafa | 66.5% | +3.4range +2.4 to +4.7Sufficient evidence | +5.2range +4.6 to +5.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jlynn Counter | 64.6% | +4.0range +2.4 to +5.4Sufficient evidence | +5.3range +4.5 to +6.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Justin Bufford | 62.6% | -0.3range -1.4 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | +3.2range +2.6 to +3.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Torey Alston | 51.6% | -0.7range -1.7 to +0.3Sufficient evidence | +2.5range +2.0 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Chris Loofe | 32.1% | +0.2range -1.1 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.5 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tre Green | 30.6% | -0.0range -1.3 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | +1.6range +1.3 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kamari Lands | 26.7% | +0.4range -0.8 to +1.8Sufficient evidence | +1.5range +1.2 to +1.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jacob Johnson | 12.1% | -1.2range -1.9 to -0.5Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Christian Fussell | 1.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Alec Oglesby | 1.0% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Isiah Lightsy | 0.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jack Jubenville | 0.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jarred Hall | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
29 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 2 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $3,283,470 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $3,283,470 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 9 |
| 3 or more days | 19 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 3 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology