Mt St Mary's
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Lipscomb | 83.3% | +1.0range -0.0 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | +5.3range +4.5 to +6.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jedy Cordilia | 74.1% | +0.1range -1.0 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | +4.2range +3.5 to +5.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dola Adebayo | 72.0% | +2.2range +0.6 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | +5.2range +4.4 to +6.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dallas Hobbs | 57.9% | +0.8range -0.8 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | +3.6range +2.9 to +4.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Carmelo Pacheco | 54.9% | -1.1range -2.7 to +0.3Sufficient evidence | +2.6range +2.0 to +3.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Arlandus Keyes | 40.9% | +1.0range -0.6 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | +2.7range +2.1 to +3.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Javon Ervin | 37.0% | -2.6range -3.9 to -1.4Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +0.9 to +1.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Terrell Ard Jr. | 32.8% | +0.5range -0.9 to +1.8Sufficient evidence | +2.0range +1.6 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Abdou Khadre Kébé | 21.4% | -2.8range -4.4 to -1.3Sufficient evidence | +0.7range +0.4 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Patrick Haigh | 9.6% | -1.6range -2.4 to -1.0Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Malcolm Dread | 8.6% | -1.8range -3.2 to -0.6Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Trey Wilson | 6.9% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jaxon Hartman | 0.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jonathan Ogunfuye | 0.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
29 of 35 games passed lineup acceptance (83%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 6 of 35 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,656,697 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,656,697 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 10 |
| 3 or more days | 22 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 5 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 3 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology