Montana St
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabe Mullins | 66.9% | +2.0range +0.7 to +3.3Sufficient evidence | +4.3range +3.7 to +5.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Max Agbonkpolo | 64.3% | -0.1range -1.5 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | +3.2range +2.6 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tyler Patterson | 59.2% | +1.3range -0.1 to +2.9Sufficient evidence | +3.6range +3.0 to +4.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Patrick McMahon | 58.0% | -0.2range -1.8 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | +2.9range +2.2 to +3.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Brandon Walker | 48.2% | +0.9range -0.4 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | +2.8range +2.3 to +3.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jed Miller | 43.4% | +4.4range +3.1 to +5.8Sufficient evidence | +3.6range +3.1 to +4.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Sam Lecholat | 42.6% | +0.4range -0.7 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | +2.3range +1.9 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Bryce Zephir | 40.6% | -3.2range -5.0 to -1.7Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.6 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Brian Goracke | 38.7% | -0.5range -1.7 to +0.8Sufficient evidence | +1.9range +1.4 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Chika Nduka | 19.9% | +0.9range -0.2 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| BJ Kolly | 14.5% | -0.1range -1.0 to +0.7Limited evidence | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.9Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jeremiah Davis | 3.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Calum Rutherfurd | 0.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
30 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 2 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,385,737 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,778,265 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 1 |
| 2 days | 12 |
| 3 or more days | 18 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 3 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 5 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology