Michigan St
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Akins | 68.8% | +4.3range +2.7 to +5.6Sufficient evidence | +5.9range +5.0 to +6.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jase Richardson | 60.8% | +4.9range +3.2 to +6.0Sufficient evidence | +5.4range +4.6 to +6.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jeremy Fears Jr. | 58.6% | +4.3range +3.3 to +5.4Sufficient evidence | +4.9range +4.5 to +5.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tre Holloman | 56.6% | +3.3range +1.7 to +4.2Sufficient evidence | +4.3range +3.6 to +5.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jaxon Kohler | 52.2% | +5.2range +3.9 to +6.3Sufficient evidence | +4.7range +4.2 to +5.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Coen Carr | 50.9% | +1.6range +0.3 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | +3.2range +2.7 to +3.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Carson Cooper | 42.5% | +4.1range +2.7 to +5.4Sufficient evidence | +3.5range +3.0 to +3.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Frankie Fidler | 40.5% | +1.6range +0.1 to +3.1Sufficient evidence | +2.5range +2.1 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Szymon Zapala | 35.2% | +3.0range +1.9 to +4.2Sufficient evidence | +2.5range +2.2 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Xavier Booker | 28.2% | -0.3range -1.7 to +0.6Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.0 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kur Teng | 3.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Gehrig Normand | 1.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Nick Sanders | 0.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
36 of 37 games passed lineup acceptance (97%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 1 of 37 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses
| Reported revenue | $21,818,193 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $20,566,735 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 3 |
| 2 days | 2 |
| 3 or more days | 31 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 0 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology