Long Beach St
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Askew | 90.2% | -1.5range -2.3 to -0.7Sufficient evidence | +2.3range +1.9 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Austin Johnson | 70.9% | -2.3range -3.3 to -1.3Sufficient evidence | +1.6range +1.2 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| TJ Wainwright | 68.5% | -1.7range -2.7 to -0.8Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kam Martin | 65.9% | -1.3range -2.6 to -0.1Sufficient evidence | +1.8range +1.4 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Derrick Michael Xzavierro | 46.8% | +1.4range +0.2 to +2.6Sufficient evidence | +1.9range +1.6 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cam Denson | 42.9% | -2.6range -4.2 to -1.3Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.6 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Andrew Nagy | 38.7% | -1.4range -2.4 to -0.3Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Varick Lewis | 25.7% | -2.2range -3.2 to -1.2Sufficient evidence | +0.6range +0.5 to +0.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jason Hart Jr. | 13.8% | -1.7range -2.9 to -0.7Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Christian Richardson | 13.1% | -2.5range -3.2 to -1.8Limited evidence | +0.3range +0.2 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ramel Lloyd Jr. | 12.4% | -2.2range -3.1 to -1.5Limited evidence | +0.3range +0.2 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Eli Djordjevic | 6.9% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cory Curtis Jr. | 3.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Grant Martin | 0.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
25 of 30 games passed lineup acceptance (83%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 5 of 30 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,541,381 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,541,381 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 10 |
| 3 or more days | 17 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 3 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology