Illinois St
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger | 80.7% | +1.9range +1.2 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | +5.3range +4.7 to +6.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dalton Banks | 77.9% | +1.5range +0.6 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | +4.8range +4.2 to +5.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Chase Walker | 61.9% | +4.0range +2.9 to +5.2Sufficient evidence | +5.0range +4.4 to +5.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ty Pence | 56.5% | -0.0range -1.4 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | +2.9range +2.4 to +3.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Landon Wolf | 55.5% | +1.5range +0.4 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | +3.5range +3.0 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Malachi Poindexter | 51.1% | -3.0range -4.2 to -1.5Sufficient evidence | +1.5range +1.0 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jordan Davis | 47.1% | +0.4range -0.9 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | +2.6range +2.2 to +3.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jack Daugherty | 28.1% | +1.2range +0.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.5 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Caden Boser | 27.4% | -1.8range -2.7 to -0.9Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.8 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cade Norris | 7.0% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cameron Barnes | 6.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ty Blake | 0.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
28 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (88%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 4 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $3,167,173 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $3,167,173 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 1 |
| 3 or more days | 28 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology