Illinois
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylan Boswell | 76.9% | +2.6range +1.2 to +3.7Sufficient evidence | +5.4range +4.6 to +6.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kasparas Jakucionis | 73.8% | +3.0range +1.4 to +4.5Sufficient evidence | +5.4range +4.6 to +6.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Will Riley | 63.6% | +3.6range +2.3 to +4.7Sufficient evidence | +5.0range +4.3 to +5.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ben Humrichous | 63.2% | +3.1range +1.8 to +4.2Sufficient evidence | +4.7range +4.1 to +5.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tomislav Ivisic | 60.9% | +4.7range +3.7 to +6.0Sufficient evidence | +5.3range +4.7 to +5.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tre White | 54.3% | +2.8range +1.1 to +4.3Sufficient evidence | +3.9range +3.3 to +4.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn | 37.5% | +0.6range -0.5 to +1.9Sufficient evidence | +2.1range +1.7 to +2.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Morez Johnson Jr. | 37.0% | +4.0range +2.7 to +5.2Sufficient evidence | +3.0range +2.5 to +3.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jake Davis | 22.1% | +0.7range -0.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Carey Booth | 7.6% | -0.5range -1.3 to +0.3Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| AJ Redd | 1.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Keaton Kutcher | 1.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
33 of 35 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 2 of 35 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses
| Reported revenue | $34,764,436 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $20,565,967 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched through an NCES IPEDS institution alias, with state and home-venue city agreeing.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 1 |
| 2 days | 2 |
| 3 or more days | 31 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 2 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology