Fresno St
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaon Collins | 79.5% | -0.7range -1.5 to +0.2Sufficient evidence | +2.4range +2.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Alex Crawford | 77.1% | -1.6range -2.9 to -0.4Sufficient evidence | +2.0range +1.5 to +2.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Elijah Price | 74.9% | +0.7range -0.6 to +1.8Sufficient evidence | +2.6range +2.2 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jalen Weaver | 63.5% | -1.3range -2.5 to -0.3Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Brian Amuneke | 45.0% | -1.5range -2.6 to -0.3Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +1.0 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jasir Tremble | 41.5% | -1.4range -2.5 to -0.3Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +0.9 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mykell Robinson | 41.3% | -0.7range -1.4 to +0.2Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.1 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mor Seck | 35.8% | -1.6range -2.9 to -0.5Sufficient evidence | +1.0range +0.7 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Pierre Geneste Jr. | 18.2% | -2.4range -3.4 to -1.5Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Amar Augillard | 12.7% | +0.4range -0.1 to +0.9Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Joshua Bonga | 5.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| David Douglas Jr. | 5.0% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
22 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (69%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 10 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $4,478,222 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $4,478,222 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 1 |
| 3 or more days | 30 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 0 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology