Duke
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kon Knueppel | 78.1% | +5.4range +4.2 to +6.4Sufficient evidence | +4.4range +3.8 to +5.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tyrese Proctor | 74.8% | +6.2range +4.7 to +7.5Sufficient evidence | +4.5range +3.9 to +5.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cooper Flagg | 74.0% | +7.7range +6.4 to +8.5Sufficient evidence | +5.1range +4.5 to +5.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Sion James | 65.0% | +6.8range +5.1 to +7.9Sufficient evidence | +4.0range +3.4 to +4.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Khaman Maluach | 54.2% | +4.5range +3.1 to +6.4Sufficient evidence | +2.6range +2.2 to +3.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Caleb Foster | 34.0% | +1.0range -0.5 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | +1.0range +0.8 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mason Gillis | 33.1% | +4.5range +2.9 to +5.7Sufficient evidence | +1.4range +1.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Isaiah Evans | 30.0% | +3.0range +1.2 to +4.6Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Maliq Brown | 27.7% | +4.3range +2.7 to +5.7Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +1.0 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Patrick Ngongba | 18.0% | +4.1range +2.7 to +5.3Sufficient evidence | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Darren Harris | 6.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Neal Begovich | 1.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cameron Sheffield | 1.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Spencer Hubbard | 1.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Stanley Borden | 0.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
35 of 39 games passed lineup acceptance (90%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 4 of 39 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses
| Reported revenue | $52,729,506 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $31,868,603 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 6 |
| 3 or more days | 30 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology