Detroit
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Lovejoy | 79.5% | +0.5range -0.7 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | +2.8range +2.4 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Nate Johnson | 73.2% | -3.8range -4.9 to -2.5Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +0.8 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| TJ Nadeau | 60.9% | -2.2range -3.4 to -0.8Sufficient evidence | +1.5range +1.1 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Legend Geeter | 53.2% | -0.8range -1.8 to +0.2Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.3 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Emmanuel Kuac | 50.7% | -1.6range -2.8 to -0.5Sufficient evidence | +1.4range +1.1 to +1.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ryan Kalambay | 43.2% | -1.1range -2.4 to +0.3Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.0 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Grant Gondrezick II | 37.7% | -1.5range -2.6 to -0.2Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Miles Mitchell | 26.2% | -1.6range -2.6 to -0.7Sufficient evidence | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mak Manciel | 21.1% | -2.4range -3.1 to -1.8Sufficient evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Stephen Okoro | 16.0% | -0.7range -1.4 to +0.1Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jared Lary | 15.2% | -1.1range -1.9 to -0.6Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Chase Kuiper | 15.2% | +1.5range +0.7 to +2.2Limited evidence | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Peter Fuchs Jr. | 5.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ryan Hurst | 1.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Duane Rogers III | 0.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Alex Tchikou | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
23 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (74%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 8 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses
| Reported revenue | $3,100,195 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $3,090,652 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 1 |
| 2 days | 6 |
| 3 or more days | 23 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 3 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 4 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology