Colorado St
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nique Clifford | 88.1% | +5.4range +4.1 to +6.6Sufficient evidence | +8.1range +7.2 to +9.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jalen Lake | 77.1% | +1.0range -0.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | +4.5range +3.7 to +5.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kyan Evans | 68.4% | +1.3range +0.2 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | +4.2range +3.6 to +5.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ethan Morton | 58.4% | +1.4range +0.1 to +2.6Sufficient evidence | +3.6range +3.0 to +4.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jaylen Crocker-Johnson | 52.1% | +1.9range +0.8 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | +3.4range +2.9 to +3.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Rashaan Mbemba | 44.0% | +0.7range -0.4 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | +2.4range +2.0 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Bowen Born | 36.8% | +0.9range -0.4 to +1.9Sufficient evidence | +2.1range +1.7 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Keshawn Williams | 33.8% | +0.5range -0.8 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | +1.8range +1.4 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kyle Jorgensen | 30.9% | +0.8range -0.4 to +1.8Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.4 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Nikola Djapa | 9.4% | +0.5range -0.5 to +1.7Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Luke Murphy | 0.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jaden Steppe | 0.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
28 of 36 games passed lineup acceptance (78%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 8 of 36 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $6,966,054 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $6,966,054 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 3 |
| 2 days | 1 |
| 3 or more days | 31 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 0 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology