Citadel
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brody Fox | 83.1% | -3.8range -4.9 to -2.5Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.6 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Sola Adebisi | 62.6% | -2.1range -4.3 to -0.3Sufficient evidence | +1.0range +0.6 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| John Adams | 62.2% | -2.7range -3.5 to -1.7Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Paxton Davidson | 62.0% | -2.7range -4.0 to -1.6Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.6 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Christian Moore | 58.5% | -2.2range -3.5 to -1.1Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.7 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cam Glover | 51.5% | -1.5range -2.7 to -0.3Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Colby McAllister | 38.6% | +0.3range -1.6 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.7 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Eze Wali | 28.1% | -2.2range -2.9 to -1.4Sufficient evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Keynan Davis | 22.1% | -2.5range -3.7 to -1.1Sufficient evidence | +0.3range +0.3 to +0.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dante Kearse | 19.1% | -2.9range -4.0 to -1.9Limited evidence | +0.3range +0.2 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kam Roberts | 6.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dominic Commisso | 3.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Braylen Smith | 1.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cole Alexander | 0.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
21 of 26 games passed lineup acceptance (81%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 5 of 26 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,195,887 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,020,125 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 2 days | 1 |
| 3 or more days | 24 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 3 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology