Chicago St
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Robinson | 73.1% | -2.6range -3.7 to -1.4Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +0.9 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jalen Forrest | 73.0% | -1.8range -3.0 to -0.8Sufficient evidence | +1.4range +1.0 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Gabe Spinelli | 70.6% | -3.6range -4.9 to -2.3Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.6 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Noble Crawford | 59.6% | -1.3range -2.6 to +0.2Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +1.0 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Saxby Sunderland | 49.3% | -2.3range -3.4 to -1.2Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Troy McKoy, Jr. | 38.4% | -1.7range -2.8 to -0.8Sufficient evidence | +0.8range +0.6 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Quincy Allen | 32.5% | -1.4range -2.6 to -0.1Sufficient evidence | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dailliss Cox | 31.3% | -0.8range -2.1 to +0.3Sufficient evidence | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| CJ Delancy | 28.5% | -1.9range -2.8 to -1.1Sufficient evidence | +0.6range +0.4 to +0.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cameron Jernigan | 24.0% | -1.8range -2.6 to -0.8Sufficient evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Greg Spate | 8.0% | -1.8range -2.3 to -1.1Limited evidence | +0.2range +0.1 to +0.2Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Michael Brown | 4.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Joe Spinelli | 4.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Alex Raiford | 2.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
27 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (84%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 5 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $1,355,956 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $1,355,956 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 1 |
| 2 days | 9 |
| 3 or more days | 21 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 3 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 9 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology