California
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Stojakovic | 83.7% | +1.5range +0.6 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | +4.5range +3.9 to +5.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Rytis Petraitis | 73.9% | +0.9range +0.2 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | +3.7range +3.3 to +4.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jeremiah Wilkinson | 66.0% | +1.5range +0.3 to +2.6Limited evidence | +3.6range +3.0 to +4.1Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Joshua Ola-Joseph | 63.7% | +0.8range -0.6 to +2.1Limited evidence | +3.2range +2.6 to +3.8Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mady Sissoko | 63.3% | +0.2range -0.6 to +0.9Limited evidence | +2.9range +2.5 to +3.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Christian Tucker | 46.0% | -1.9range -2.5 to -1.5Limited evidence | +1.5range +1.2 to +1.8Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jovan Blacksher Jr. | 41.7% | +1.0range +0.8 to +1.3Limited evidence | +2.2range +2.0 to +2.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Lee Dort | 31.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Spencer Mahoney | 22.9% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Devin Curtis | 5.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jack McCloskey | 1.0% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jayden Karapetian | 0.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Matt Desler | 0.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
6 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (18%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 27 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses
| Reported revenue | $13,249,051 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $14,101,936 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 1 |
| 3 or more days | 31 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 3 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology