Cal Poly
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Koonce | 75.2% | +0.0range -1.2 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | +3.7range +3.0 to +4.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jarred Hyder | 74.3% | -0.9range -2.1 to +0.3Sufficient evidence | +3.2range +2.6 to +3.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Isaac Jessup | 71.8% | +3.5range +2.1 to +4.5Sufficient evidence | +5.1range +4.4 to +5.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mac Riniker | 60.9% | +1.4range +0.0 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | +3.6range +2.9 to +4.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Peter Bandelj | 60.1% | +0.1range -1.1 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | +3.0range +2.5 to +3.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Guzman Vasilic | 37.0% | -0.8range -1.8 to +0.2Sufficient evidence | +1.6range +1.3 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cayden Ward | 30.0% | -1.8range -2.6 to -0.7Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Luka Tarlac | 27.7% | -0.9range -1.9 to +0.0Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +1.0 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Aaron Price, Jr. | 21.8% | -1.8range -2.8 to -0.8Sufficient evidence | +0.8range +0.6 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ethan Menzies | 17.1% | -0.6range -1.7 to +0.6Sufficient evidence | +0.8range +0.7 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kieran Elliott | 11.3% | -0.6range -1.1 to -0.1Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.5 to +0.6Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Paul Bizimana | 4.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Hayden Jory | 4.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Logan McLaughlin | 2.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Isaac Spears | 1.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Eric Brown | 0.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
26 of 34 games passed lineup acceptance (76%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 8 of 34 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,537,259 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,537,259 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched through an NCES IPEDS institution alias, with state and home-venue city agreeing.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 10 |
| 3 or more days | 21 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 4 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 3 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology