Austin Peay
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LJ Thomas | 67.4% | -1.0range -1.9 to +0.2Sufficient evidence | +2.4range +2.0 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Quan Lax | 64.7% | -1.3range -2.4 to -0.3Sufficient evidence | +2.2range +1.8 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Anton Brookshire | 64.6% | -0.3range -1.7 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | +2.6range +2.1 to +3.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tate McCubbin | 63.5% | +1.0range +0.1 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | +2.9range +2.6 to +3.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Isaac Haney | 56.5% | -1.6range -2.8 to -0.2Sufficient evidence | +1.9range +1.5 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tekao Carpenter | 44.3% | -0.7range -1.9 to +0.2Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.3 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Sai Witt | 42.5% | +0.6range -0.2 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | +1.9range +1.7 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Hansel Enmanuel | 23.3% | -0.9range -1.6 to +0.0Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| JaVar Daniel | 15.8% | +2.4range +1.3 to +3.2Limited evidence | +0.9range +0.8 to +1.0Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Akili Evans | 14.4% | -1.1range -1.9 to -0.1Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Daniel Loos | 14.1% | -2.6range -3.3 to -1.7Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Darius Dawson | 11.6% | -0.0range -0.8 to +0.8Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Me'Kell Burries | 8.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Terrell Gaines | 7.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Bowen Hammer | 1.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
23 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (74%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 8 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,590,785 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,590,785 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 8 |
| 3 or more days | 20 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 4 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology