Auburn
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johni Broome | 71.9% | +7.4range +6.2 to +8.3Sufficient evidence | +7.7range +6.9 to +8.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Miles Kelly | 71.4% | +4.4range +2.9 to +5.7Sufficient evidence | +5.9range +5.0 to +6.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Denver Jones | 69.0% | +5.8range +4.3 to +7.0Sufficient evidence | +6.4range +5.5 to +7.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Chad Baker-Mazara | 63.3% | +3.1range +2.0 to +4.1Sufficient evidence | +4.5range +3.8 to +5.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Chaney Johnson | 57.9% | +5.6range +4.0 to +7.3Sufficient evidence | +5.2range +4.3 to +6.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tahaad Pettiford | 57.1% | +3.1range +1.4 to +4.6Sufficient evidence | +4.0range +3.3 to +4.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dylan Cardwell | 51.2% | +5.4range +3.6 to +6.8Sufficient evidence | +4.4range +3.7 to +5.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Chris Moore | 24.0% | +0.1range -1.3 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jahki Howard | 12.4% | +1.1range +0.2 to +1.9Sufficient evidence | +0.6range +0.6 to +0.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ja'Heim Hudson | 10.4% | +0.2range -0.9 to +1.4Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| JP Pegues | 8.3% | +0.7range -0.4 to +1.7Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Blake Muschalek | 1.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Presley Patterson | 0.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| CJ Williams | 0.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Reed Trapp | 0.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
36 of 38 games passed lineup acceptance (95%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 2 of 38 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expenses
| Reported revenue | $26,568,984 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $20,535,097 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 3 |
| 2 days | 2 |
| 3 or more days | 32 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.4 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 0 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology