Arkansas St
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Ford Jr. | 77.2% | +2.5range +1.5 to +3.8Sufficient evidence | +4.9range +4.3 to +5.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Taryn Todd | 74.9% | +3.3range +2.0 to +4.4Sufficient evidence | +5.2range +4.4 to +6.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Joseph Pinion | 64.0% | +2.1range +0.6 to +3.7Sufficient evidence | +3.8range +3.2 to +4.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kobe Julien | 62.9% | +2.1range +0.9 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | +3.8range +3.2 to +4.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Derrian Ford | 51.2% | -0.7range -1.9 to +0.4Sufficient evidence | +2.1range +1.6 to +2.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Izaiyah Nelson | 49.4% | +2.4range +1.2 to +3.7Sufficient evidence | +3.0range +2.6 to +3.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Rashaud Marshall | 45.5% | +3.5range +2.3 to +4.5Sufficient evidence | +3.1range +2.7 to +3.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Avery Felts | 25.0% | -1.0range -1.9 to +0.0Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.8 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dyondre Dominguez | 25.0% | +1.5range +0.1 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.1 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Josh Hill | 7.3% | +0.5range -0.3 to +1.2Limited evidence | +0.3range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cody Head | 6.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Justin Johnson | 5.8% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kameron Johnson | 3.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Zane Butler | 1.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jacob St. Clair | 0.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
29 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (88%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 4 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $3,024,737 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $3,024,737 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 4 |
| 2 days | 5 |
| 3 or more days | 23 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 3 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 4 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology