Ark Little Rock
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnathan Lawson | 91.6% | +1.1range +0.3 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | +5.2range +4.5 to +6.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mwani Wilkinson | 81.8% | -0.1range -1.3 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | +3.9range +3.2 to +4.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Isaiah Lewis | 75.8% | -0.1range -1.1 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | +3.7range +3.1 to +4.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ante Beljan | 69.9% | -0.4range -1.6 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | +3.2range +2.6 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tuongthach Gatkek | 66.4% | +3.7range +2.4 to +4.8Sufficient evidence | +4.9range +4.3 to +5.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jordan Jefferson | 44.8% | -0.0range -0.9 to +1.0Sufficient evidence | +2.2range +1.9 to +2.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Caleb Pennyfeather | 23.4% | -3.0range -4.1 to -1.8Sufficient evidence | +0.7range +0.4 to +0.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Christian Hughes | 14.5% | -3.0range -3.5 to -2.4Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.3 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kristiyan Popov | 10.5% | -3.1range -3.9 to -2.4Limited evidence | +0.3range +0.2 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Travonne Jackson | 8.9% | -2.0range -2.3 to -1.6Limited evidence | +0.3range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Creed Williamson | 8.7% | +0.1range -0.6 to +0.7Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Nikola Milosevic | 3.9% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
27 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (87%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 4 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,226,185 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,226,185 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 1 |
| 2 days | 11 |
| 3 or more days | 18 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 4 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 6 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology