Arizona St
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alston Mason | 87.5% | +0.1range -1.0 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | +3.7range +3.2 to +4.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Basheer Jihad | 75.8% | +2.2range +0.7 to +3.4Sufficient evidence | +4.1range +3.5 to +4.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Adam Miller | 65.0% | +1.5range +0.3 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | +3.3range +2.8 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Joson Sanon | 58.6% | +0.4range -0.9 to +1.6Sufficient evidence | +2.7range +2.2 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| BJ Freeman | 54.8% | +1.5range +0.1 to +3.1Sufficient evidence | +2.9range +2.4 to +3.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jayden Quaintance | 54.7% | +3.9range +2.6 to +5.1Sufficient evidence | +3.6range +3.1 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Amier Ali | 43.7% | -0.6range -2.0 to +0.8Sufficient evidence | +1.8range +1.4 to +2.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Shawn Phillips Jr. | 42.6% | -2.0range -3.3 to -0.9Sufficient evidence | +1.4range +1.0 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Trevor Best | 9.1% | -1.8range -2.6 to -1.0Limited evidence | +0.3range +0.3 to +0.4Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Bobby Hurley | 3.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Austin Nunez | 3.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jordan Williams | 0.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Quentin McCoy | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Connor Braun | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Chianti Clay | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
30 of 32 games passed lineup acceptance (94%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 2 of 32 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $10,063,114 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $10,063,114 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched by a manual override chosen by the model author. Its checks (IPEDS identity, state, home-venue city) confirm only that the pick is self-consistent. They are not independent proof that this school is the same program. If the match were wrong, these figures would belong to a different school.manual EADA match, not independently verified
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 1 |
| 2 days | 1 |
| 3 or more days | 29 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology