American Univ
2025 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rogers | 67.2% | +0.6range -0.3 to +1.4Sufficient evidence | +4.1range +3.6 to +4.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Greg Jones | 66.4% | +0.6range -0.8 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | +4.0range +3.2 to +4.9Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Colin Smalls | 65.2% | -1.4range -2.8 to -0.0Sufficient evidence | +2.9range +2.2 to +3.8Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Elijah Stephens | 64.6% | -0.8range -2.1 to +0.5Sufficient evidence | +3.2range +2.5 to +4.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Lincoln Ball | 62.9% | +0.5range -1.0 to +1.8Sufficient evidence | +3.7range +2.9 to +4.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Matt Mayock | 59.7% | +0.9range -0.4 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | +3.8range +3.1 to +4.6Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Geoff Sprouse | 36.0% | -3.5range -4.5 to -2.3Sufficient evidence | +1.0range +0.7 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Wyatt Nausadis | 30.7% | -0.0range -1.3 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.4 to +2.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Eric Michaels | 20.2% | -0.5range -1.1 to +0.4Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Julen Iturbe | 11.5% | -1.2range -2.2 to -0.2Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.7Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mason Whittaker | 9.0% | -1.2range -1.7 to -0.6Limited evidence | +0.4range +0.4 to +0.5Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Adrian Samuels | 5.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Noah Jones | 0.6% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Alex Daniels | 0.3% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Adam Holod | 0.0% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
30 of 33 games passed lineup acceptance (91%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 3 of 33 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
EADA year 2024-25 (primary pairing to repo season 2025; fiscal-year mapping unconfirmed) · self-reported by the school, no external review · EADA revenue is any money used to pay expensesrevenue equals expenses
| Reported revenue | $2,085,642 | Reported by the school; not NIL pay and not a model output. |
|---|---|---|
| Reported expenses | $2,085,642 | Reported by the school. |
EADA link: matched to the registry school by a unique institution name and state.
No model-implied dollar range is shown (status: suppressed). The published dollar status could not be loaded; see NIL methodology for the reason.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 2 days | 4 |
| 3 or more days | 28 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.5 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 3 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology