Citadel
2023 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Clark | 87.0% | -2.0range -3.0 to -0.6Sufficient evidence | +2.0range +1.5 to +2.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Austin Ash | 85.5% | -0.5range -1.4 to +0.6Sufficient evidence | +2.7range +2.1 to +3.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Elijah Morgan | 78.3% | -2.3range -3.4 to -1.0Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.2 to +2.4Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Madison Durr | 61.6% | -4.2range -5.2 to -2.9Sufficient evidence | +0.7range +0.3 to +1.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| David Maynard | 57.2% | -0.4range -1.3 to +0.8Sufficient evidence | +1.9range +1.5 to +2.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| AJ Smith | 42.2% | -1.0range -2.1 to -0.1Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +0.9 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jackson Price | 27.7% | -1.0range -1.9 to +0.3Sufficient evidence | +0.8range +0.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Colby McAllister | 21.6% | -2.6range -3.8 to -1.4Sufficient evidence | +0.5range +0.3 to +0.7Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Brady Spence | 19.0% | +0.1range -0.6 to +0.7Limited evidence | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Tony Carpio | 8.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Dylan Engler | 5.9% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Bailey Conrad | 3.4% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| John-Michael Hughes | 1.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Mike Green | 0.7% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Josh Davis | 0.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kaylan Makan | 0.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
23 of 31 games passed lineup acceptance (74%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 8 of 31 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
No program revenue was published for this team.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 2 |
| 2 days | 4 |
| 3 or more days | 24 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 2 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 3 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology