Arkansas
2023 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Team results
Roster valuesβ
| Player | Possession share | Net and range | Wins above replacement and range | Speculative compensation (best guess) | Compensation 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Black | 86.7% | +3.3range +2.2 to +4.1Sufficient evidence | +6.5range +5.6 to +7.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Ricky Council IV | 85.7% | +1.5range +0.4 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | +5.2range +4.1 to +6.3Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Davonte Davis | 80.9% | +1.9range +0.8 to +2.8Sufficient evidence | +5.2range +4.5 to +6.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jordan Walsh | 60.9% | +3.2range +1.8 to +4.6Sufficient evidence | +4.5range +3.7 to +5.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Makhi Mitchell | 52.4% | +2.4range +1.1 to +3.5Sufficient evidence | +3.6range +2.9 to +4.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Nick Smith Jr. | 29.9% | -1.1range -2.0 to -0.2Sufficient evidence | +1.2range +0.9 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Makhel Mitchell | 26.9% | +1.8range +0.7 to +2.9Sufficient evidence | +1.7range +1.4 to +2.0Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Kamani Johnson | 24.1% | +0.6range -0.0 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | +1.3range +1.1 to +1.5Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Jalen Graham | 16.8% | +0.5range -0.5 to +1.7Sufficient evidence | +0.9range +0.7 to +1.1Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Trevon Brazile | 16.7% | +2.1range +1.0 to +3.0Sufficient evidence | +1.1range +0.9 to +1.2Sufficient evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Joseph Pinion | 9.8% | +0.3range -0.9 to +1.6Limited evidence | +0.5range +0.4 to +0.6Limited evidence | None: no budget that season | — |
| Derrian Ford | 5.1% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Barry Dunning Jr. | 3.2% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Lawson Blake | 0.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
| Cade Arbogast | 0.5% | Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated. Insufficient evidence | Not applicable | None: no budget that season | — |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Compensation is a speculative best guess of a share of the school's own revenue-sharing budget, not observed pay.
Coverage and exclusions
33 of 36 games passed lineup acceptance (92%). 100% of accepted on-court possessions are bound to registered players.
- 3 of 36 audited games did not pass lineup acceptance; per-game reasons are counted for the whole season (see methodology), not per team
Program revenueβ
No program revenue was published for this team.
Schedule loadβ
Counts are descriptive and associational, with neutral formatting. Consecutive away games is the only travel proxy; distance, time zones and injuries are not modeled.
Rest days before each game
| Rest days | Games |
|---|---|
| First game (no rest value) | 1 |
| 1 day | 3 |
| 2 days | 1 |
| 3 or more days | 31 |
Rest is capped at three days. Descriptive count.
Load summary
| Mean games in prior 7 days | 1.6 |
|---|---|
| Games with fewer rest days than the opponent | 1 |
| Longest run of consecutive away games | 2 |
Association between rest and margin, all teams
Pooled association passes the declared test (gate S1); not causal and not specific to this team · 0.86 points of margin associated with each extra rest day, range +0.33 to +1.41
This is an association, not a causal lever, pooled across Division I and not specific to this team.
Manifest 13921361a27d · NIL methodology