LJ Wells
2023 · evaluation season · nil-value-v3 · Limited evidence
476 on-court possessions · 146.9 minutes · 17 games
Retrospective contributionβ
| Measure | Estimate and range | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Net, per 100 possessions | +0.1range -0.7 to +0.9Limited evidence | Offense plus defense; positive is better. |
| Offense | -0.5range unavailableLimited evidence | Association between this player being on court and team points per 100 possessions on offense, given teammates and opponents in the fit. It depends on role and context and is not the effect of adding the player. No separate range is published. |
| Defense | +0.5range unavailableLimited evidence | Association between this player being on court and opponent points per 100 possessions, given teammates and opponents in the fit. It depends on role and context and is not the effect of adding the player. No separate range is published. |
| Per 40 over replacement | +4.1range +3.4 to +4.9Limited evidence | Retrospective difference in points per 40 minutes from the pooled low-minute replacement level; context-dependent. |
| Wins above replacement | +0.7range +0.6 to +0.8Limited evidence | Retrospective wins associated with this player's minutes over the accepted schedule, relative to the pooled replacement level. Not the wins a team would gain by swapping the player in or out. |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile of whole-game resampling draws. They are not calibrated intervals. Offense and defense carry no published range, so they are shown as range unavailable and should not be read as precise.
Prior used
Prior mean 0.3 per 100 possessions at weight 96% of the estimate. The remainder comes from this player's lineup data.
Speculative compensation · 2025–26β
No speculative compensation is published for this player: there is no current-season team to read a pool from.
No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.
Program-level revenue allocation (frozen model)β
No program-level revenue allocation is shown from the frozen valuation model. Elasticity cross-check failed: the wins-to-revenue elasticity prior and the cross-section implied elasticity differ by more than the declared factor, and no gate validates the prior. No EADA cross-section is paired to season 2023 The speculative compensation estimate above is a separate model with its own assumptions and basis.