Luke Johnson

2026 · descriptive season · nil-value-v3 · Insufficient evidence

Fewer than 300 on-court possessions; no value is estimated.

207 on-court possessions · 64.3 minutes · 12 games low-minutes

Retrospective contributionβ

No retrospective contribution is shown for this player-season; the reason is stated above.

Speculative compensation · 2025–26β

Oregon · Power 4 · 2025–26 · a best guess at this player's part of the school's own revenue-sharing budget for men's basketball.

Speculative best guess: $23K; 80% range $13K to $37K
Median share of team pool: 0.7%; team pool $3.55M, 80% range $2.55M to $4.95M
Across scenarios Z1 to Z4: $23K in all four; the elasticity disagreement is carried, not resolved
Floor part: $23K; shared by every player with possessions
Possession share: 5.0%; Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate

Point and 80% range on the team table's axis. Open circle: limited evidence or floor only.

Floor only: below 300 possessions, no value estimate

Speculative best guess, not observed pay. It is not a contract, not an offer and not a market price, and it is unvalidated: no pay is held to check it against. Point is the median and the range is the 10th to 90th percentile of 4,000 joint draws of budget and player value; a mixture of assumptions, not a calibrated interval.

Budget anchor. House-settlement $20.5M cap (College Sports Commission, 2026-10-01) times a modelled utilisation of about 97 percent times a men's basketball share of about 18 percent (school statements and an industry study); Power 4 schools are at or near the cap nationally.

Assumptions. modelled pool; split by possession share times value over replacement; convexity; shared floor; replacement level; four elasticity scenarios; closure to the national total; opt-out list; exclusions. Each is a declared judgement, not an estimate. Numbers, anchors and checks

Not included. Third-party and collective NIL deals, including deals cleared through NIL Go. Non-cash benefits such as scholarship, cost of attendance, Alston awards and housing. Bonuses and incentive terms. Anything outside the school's own revenue-sharing channel.

Oregon: whole-roster table and pool · School finances (school-reported) · What-if calculator for this player

No revenue-sharing budget existed before the 2025–26 season, so no compensation figure is modelled for earlier seasons.

Earlier seasons

Earlier-fit net values: no range is published for these seasons; evidence is stated as the lowest level
Season	Split role	Net	Range	Evidence
2025	evaluation: examined, post hoc	Not published

Earlier-fit values carry no published range and no evidence record, so each is labeled with the lowest evidence level and its split role. Model-implied, experimental. NIL methodology

Program-level revenue allocation (frozen model)β

No program-level revenue allocation is shown from the frozen valuation model. Elasticity cross-check failed: the wins-to-revenue elasticity prior and the cross-section implied elasticity differ by more than the declared factor, and no gate validates the prior The speculative compensation estimate above is a separate model with its own assumptions and basis.

Luke Johnson

Retrospective contributionβ

Speculative compensation · 2025–26β

Earlier seasons

Program-level revenue allocation (frozen model)β

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